"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it." - Winston Churchill "Those that fail to learn from history are stupid." - Uncle Brice

College Football BCS – 2010

November 1, 2010

college football bowlsCollege football BCS rankings for Week 10 saw Oregon move past Auburn for the top spot. So I decided to figure out how the BCS works.

The basics for BCS rankings are that they are a melding of the AP Poll, the USA Today Poll and six computers that use strength of schedule as part of the mix.

I chose to look at five teams that should have the best shot at playing in the National Title game: Oregon, Auburn, Boise State, TCU and Alabama.

Looking at the Week 10 BCS rankings I find that Oregon’s schedule includes ONE team in the Top 25, Number 15 Arizona. Auburn’s schedule includes Mississippi State – Number 20, South Carolina – Number 19, Arkansas – Number 18, LSU – Number 10 and Alabama – Number 6. Boise State’s schedule has Number 22 Virginia Tech and Nevada at Number 23 while TCU has Number 21 Baylor and Utah at Number 5.

Alabama has Arkansas at 18, South Carolina at 19, LSU at 10, Mississippi State at 20 and Auburn at 2. Strength of schedule looks like it favors Auburn and Alabama since both have FIVE currently ranked BCS teams on their schedule. And let’s not forget that Penn State was ranked #18 when the Crimson Tide beat them and Florida was #7 when Alabama whipped them.



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BCS Breakdown

Oregon’s Opponents
Record
Conference
New Mexico
0 – 8
Mountain West
Tennessee
2 – 6
SEC – East
Portland State
2 – 6
Big Sky
Arizona State
4 – 4
PAC 10
Stanford (#9 on gameday)
7 – 1
PAC 10
Washington State
1 – 8
PAC 10
UCLA
3 – 5
PAC 10
USC (#24 on gameday)
5 – 3
PAC 10
Washington
3 – 5
PAC 10
California
4 – 4
PAC 10
Arizona (BCS – 15)
7 – 1
PAC 10
Oregon State
4 – 3
PAC 10
Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents
42 – 54
 

Computer Rankings for Oregon

Anderson & Hester
2
Richard Billingsley
3
Colley Matrix
7
Kenneth Massey
7
Jeff Sagarin
2
Peter Wolfe
2

Oregon at Number One this week is purely based on the coach’s poll and the AP poll. Not one computer put the Ducks in that position and, as you can see, a couple of them had ‘em at Number 7. They have yet to play a BCS ranked team and have only one on their schedule if Arizona can hang on for a couple more weeks. And Auburn has already beaten FOUR BCS ranked teams. Go figure.

Auburn’s Opponents
Record
Conference
Arkansas State
3 – 5
Sun Belt
Mississippi State (BCS – 20)
7 – 2
SEC – West
Clemson
4 – 4
ACC
South Carolina (BCS – 19)
6 – 2
SEC – East
Louisiana-Monroe
4 – 4
Sun Belt
Kentucky
4 – 5
SEC – East
Arkansas (BCS – 18)
6 – 2
SEC – West
LSU (BCS – 10)
7 – 1
SEC – West
Mississippi
3 – 5
SEC – West
Chattanooga
5 – 3
Southern
Georgia
4 – 5
SEC – East
Alabama (BCS – 6)
7 – 1
SEC – West
Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents
60 – 39
 

Computer Rankings for Auburn

Anderson & Hester
1
Richard Billingsley
1
Colley Matrix
1
Kenneth Massey
1
Jeff Sagarin
1
Peter Wolfe
1

The computers – all of them – love Auburn. But it’s probably going to come down to the last game of the regular season against Alabama. And, then, they might play South Carolina again in the SEC Championship Game.

Boise State’s Opponents
Record
Conference
Virginia Tech (BCS – 22)
6 – 2
ACC
Wyoming
2 – 7
Mountain West
Oregon State
4 – 3
PAC 10
New Mexico State
2 – 6
Western Athletic
Toledo
6 – 3
MAC
San Jose State
1 – 8
Western Athletic
Louisiana Tech
3 – 5
Western Athletic
Hawaii
7 – 2
Western Athletic
Idaho
4 – 4
Western Athletic
Fresno State
5 – 2
Western Athletic
Nevada (BCS 23)
7 – 1
Western Athletic
Utah State
2 – 6
Western Athletic
Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents
49 – 49
 

Computer Rankings for Boise State

Anderson & Hester
4
Richard Billingsley
5
Colley Matrix
5
Kenneth Massey
7
Jeff Sagarin
13
Peter Wolfe
7

The computers don’t like Boise State nearly as much as the coaches and the AP poll. Any respect I might have had for the Broncos flew out the window when they turned down the opportunity to play Nebraska, a team that certainly would have improved the strength of their schedule. Oh, but they might have lost that game!!!

TCU’s Opponents
Record
Conference
Oregon State
4 – 3
PAC -10
Tennessee Tech
4 – 4
OVC
Baylor (BCS – 21)
7 – 2
Big 12
SMU
5 – 4
USA
Colorado State
3 – 6
Mountain West
Wyoming
2 – 7
Mountain West
Brigham Young
3 – 5
Mountain West
Air Force
5 – 4
Mountain West
UNLV
1 – 7
Mountain West
Utah (BCS – 5)
8 – 0
Mountain West
San Diego State
6 – 2
Mountain West
New Mexico
0 – 8
Mountain West
Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents
48 – 52
 

Computer Rankings for TCU

Anderson & Hester
6
Richard Billingsley
2
Colley Matrix
2
Kenneth Massey
3
Jeff Sagarin
5
Peter Wolfe
3

There is no rhyme nor reason for TCU’s computer rankings. Two computers ranking them number 2 and two ranking them number three when their opponents have a combined record of 48 – 52, with an 8 – 0 and a 6 – 2 that they haven’t played yet. Take away the records of the three teams yet to be played and the opponent’s record is 34 – 44.

Alabama’s Opponents
Record
Conference
San Jose State
1 – 8
Western Athletic
Penn State (#18 on gameday)
5 – 3
Big 10
Duke
2 – 6
ACC
Arkansas (BCS 18)
6 – 2
SEC – West
Florida (#7 on gameday)
5 – 3
SEC – East
South Carolina (BCS 19) LOSS
6 – 2
SEC – East
Mississippi
3 – 5
SEC – West
Tennessee
2 – 6
SEC – East
LSU (BCS – 10)
7 – 1
SEC – West
Mississippi State (BCS – 20)
7 – 2
SEC – West
Georgia State
5 – 4
1AA
Auburn (BCS – 2)
9 – 0
SEC – West
Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents
58 – 42
 

Computer Rankings for Alabama

Anderson & Hester
9
Richard Billingsley
4
Colley Matrix
13
Kenneth Massey
16
Jeff Sagarin
17
Peter Wolfe
15

Alabama is poised to move up in the computer rankings because two of their final three opponents have good records, Mississippi State and Auburn. Of course, Alabama would have to win all of its remaining games, certainly a possibility.

I spend so much time on the Internet that I do my best to clean my computer once a week and never more than 10 days between cleanings. Here’s a special you might want to know about:

College Football Bowl Season 2009 – 2010

December 7, 2009

college football bowlsCollege football provides a little bit of something for everyone in the bowl games for the 2009 – 2010 season, and I mean everyone: especially those who want to cash in on audiences of various size. College football, like everything else in America is all about money.

Before Bowling for Dollars moved from alleys and ten pins to college football you were pretty much assured of seeing a good game between good teams. The Rose Bowl featured the PAC-10 winner versus the Big Ten winner. It was nicknamed "The Granddaddy of Them All" and has been a sellout every year since 1947. The Tournament of Roses originally featured ostrich races, bronco busting and, even, a race between a camel and an elephant. It wasn’t until its 12th year that a football game was added. That game lasted just a little more than two quarters when, with the score 49 – 0, Stanford gave up and walked off the field giving Michigan the victory. Years 13, 14 and 15 had chariot races instead of football, but the pigskin returned in year 16.

The other big games included the Cotton Bowl featuring the Southwest Conference Champion against someone-to-be-determined, the Sugar Bowl featuring the Southeast Conference Champion versus someone-to-be-named, the Orange Bowl that highlighted two teams to be named. The lesser bowls were the Gator Bowl and the Liberty Bowl.

But all that changed as money began to dominate college football. The list of all 2009 – 2010 Bowl Games is below. Matchups between Top 10 Tens are bold.



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Bowl Games in 2009 -2010

Bowl
Date
Teams
New Mexico 12/19 Fresno State 28 – Wyoming 35
St. Petersburg 12/19 UCF 24 – Rutgers 45
R+L Carriers New Orleans 12/20 Southern Miss 32 – Middle Tennessee 42
MAACO Las Vegas 12/22 Oregon State (18) 20 – BYU (14) 44
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia 12/23 Utah (23) 37 – Cal 27
Sheraton Hawaii 12/24 Nevada 10 – SMU 45
Little Caesars 12/26 Marshall 21 – Ohio 17
Meineke Car Care 12/26 Pitt (17) 19 – North Carolina 17
Emerald 12/26 Boston College 13 – USC (24) 24
Gaylord Hotels Music City 12/27 Kentucky 13 – Clemson 21
AdvoCare V100 Independence 12/28 Texas A&M 20 – Georgia 44
EagleBank 12/29 UCLA 30 – Temple 21
Champs Sports 12/29 Miami (15) 14 – Wisconsin (25) 20
Roady’s Humanitarian 12/30 Bowling Green 42 – Idaho 43
Pacific Life Holiday 12/30 Arizona (20) 0 – Nebraska (22) 33
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces 12/31 Houston 20 – Air Force 47
Brut Sun 12/31 Oklahoma 31 -. Stanford (21) 27
Texas 12/31 Navy 35 – Missouri 13
Insight 12/31 Minnesota 13 – Iowa State 14
Chick-fil-A 12/31 Virginia Tech (11) 37 – Tennessee 14
Outback 01/01 Northwestern vs. Auburn
Capital One 01/01 Penn State (13) vs. LSU (12)
Konica Minolta Gator 01/01 West Virginia (16) vs. Florida State
Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi 01/01 Ohio State (8) vs. Oregon (7)
Allstate Sugar 01/01 Florida (5) vs. Cincinnati (3)
International 01/02 South Florida vs. Northern Illinois
Papajohns.com 01/02 South Carolina vs. UConn
AT&T Cotton 01/02 Oklahoma State (19) vs. Ole Miss
AutoZone Liberty 01/02 Arkansas vs. East Carolina
Valero Alamo 01/02 Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Tostitos Fiesta 01/04 Boise State (6) vs. TCU (4)
FedEx Orange 01/05 Iowa (10) vs. Georgia Tech (9)
GMAC 01/06 Central Michigan vs. Troy
Citi BCS National Championship Game 01/07 Texas (2) vs. Alabama (1)

So, there’s a whole lot of opportunity to Party Your, uh, Head Off. Grab a significant (or insignificant) other and have a good time as college football shines. Guys, maximize your chances to score with the winners by grabbing some of that clothing mentioned above in my own advertising. Don’t blame me, I’d like to make a little money off the bowl games, too. And you’ll like what I’m promoting a whole lot better, especially when victory is yours.

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