College Football BCS – 2010
November 1, 2010
College football BCS rankings for Week 10 saw Oregon move past Auburn for the top spot. So I decided to figure out how the BCS works.
The basics for BCS rankings are that they are a melding of the AP Poll, the USA Today Poll and six computers that use strength of schedule as part of the mix.
I chose to look at five teams that should have the best shot at playing in the National Title game: Oregon, Auburn, Boise State, TCU and Alabama.
Looking at the Week 10 BCS rankings I find that Oregon’s schedule includes ONE team in the Top 25, Number 15 Arizona. Auburn’s schedule includes Mississippi State – Number 20, South Carolina – Number 19, Arkansas – Number 18, LSU – Number 10 and Alabama – Number 6. Boise State’s schedule has Number 22 Virginia Tech and Nevada at Number 23 while TCU has Number 21 Baylor and Utah at Number 5.
Alabama has Arkansas at 18, South Carolina at 19, LSU at 10, Mississippi State at 20 and Auburn at 2. Strength of schedule looks like it favors Auburn and Alabama since both have FIVE currently ranked BCS teams on their schedule. And let’s not forget that Penn State was ranked #18 when the Crimson Tide beat them and Florida was #7 when Alabama whipped them.
BCS Breakdown
|
Oregon’s Opponents
|
Record
|
Conference
|
| New Mexico |
0 – 8
|
Mountain West |
| Tennessee |
2 – 6
|
SEC – East |
| Portland State |
2 – 6
|
Big Sky |
| Arizona State |
4 – 4
|
PAC 10 |
| Stanford (#9 on gameday) |
7 – 1
|
PAC 10 |
| Washington State |
1 – 8
|
PAC 10 |
| UCLA |
3 – 5
|
PAC 10 |
| USC (#24 on gameday) |
5 – 3
|
PAC 10 |
| Washington |
3 – 5
|
PAC 10 |
| California |
4 – 4
|
PAC 10 |
| Arizona (BCS – 15) |
7 – 1
|
PAC 10 |
| Oregon State |
4 – 3
|
PAC 10 |
| Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents |
42 – 54
|
Computer Rankings for Oregon
| Anderson & Hester |
2
|
| Richard Billingsley |
3
|
| Colley Matrix |
7
|
| Kenneth Massey |
7
|
| Jeff Sagarin |
2
|
| Peter Wolfe |
2
|
Oregon at Number One this week is purely based on the coach’s poll and the AP poll. Not one computer put the Ducks in that position and, as you can see, a couple of them had ‘em at Number 7. They have yet to play a BCS ranked team and have only one on their schedule if Arizona can hang on for a couple more weeks. And Auburn has already beaten FOUR BCS ranked teams. Go figure.
|
Auburn’s Opponents
|
Record
|
Conference
|
| Arkansas State |
3 – 5
|
Sun Belt |
| Mississippi State (BCS – 20) |
7 – 2
|
SEC – West |
| Clemson |
4 – 4
|
ACC |
| South Carolina (BCS – 19) |
6 – 2
|
SEC – East |
| Louisiana-Monroe |
4 – 4
|
Sun Belt |
| Kentucky |
4 – 5
|
SEC – East |
| Arkansas (BCS – 18) |
6 – 2
|
SEC – West |
| LSU (BCS – 10) |
7 – 1
|
SEC – West |
| Mississippi |
3 – 5
|
SEC – West |
| Chattanooga |
5 – 3
|
Southern |
| Georgia |
4 – 5
|
SEC – East |
| Alabama (BCS – 6) |
7 – 1
|
SEC – West |
| Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents |
60 – 39
|
Computer Rankings for Auburn
| Anderson & Hester |
1
|
| Richard Billingsley |
1
|
| Colley Matrix |
1
|
| Kenneth Massey |
1
|
| Jeff Sagarin |
1
|
| Peter Wolfe |
1
|
The computers – all of them – love Auburn. But it’s probably going to come down to the last game of the regular season against Alabama. And, then, they might play South Carolina again in the SEC Championship Game.
|
Boise State’s Opponents
|
Record
|
Conference
|
| Virginia Tech (BCS – 22) |
6 – 2
|
ACC |
| Wyoming |
2 – 7
|
Mountain West |
| Oregon State |
4 – 3
|
PAC 10 |
| New Mexico State |
2 – 6
|
Western Athletic |
| Toledo |
6 – 3
|
MAC |
| San Jose State |
1 – 8
|
Western Athletic |
| Louisiana Tech |
3 – 5
|
Western Athletic |
| Hawaii |
7 – 2
|
Western Athletic |
| Idaho |
4 – 4
|
Western Athletic |
| Fresno State |
5 – 2
|
Western Athletic |
| Nevada (BCS 23) |
7 – 1
|
Western Athletic |
| Utah State |
2 – 6
|
Western Athletic |
| Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents |
49 – 49
|
Computer Rankings for Boise State
| Anderson & Hester |
4
|
| Richard Billingsley |
5
|
| Colley Matrix |
5
|
| Kenneth Massey |
7
|
| Jeff Sagarin |
13
|
| Peter Wolfe |
7
|
The computers don’t like Boise State nearly as much as the coaches and the AP poll. Any respect I might have had for the Broncos flew out the window when they turned down the opportunity to play Nebraska, a team that certainly would have improved the strength of their schedule. Oh, but they might have lost that game!!!
|
TCU’s Opponents
|
Record
|
Conference
|
| Oregon State |
4 – 3
|
PAC -10 |
| Tennessee Tech |
4 – 4
|
OVC |
| Baylor (BCS – 21) |
7 – 2
|
Big 12 |
| SMU |
5 – 4
|
USA |
| Colorado State |
3 – 6
|
Mountain West |
| Wyoming |
2 – 7
|
Mountain West |
| Brigham Young |
3 – 5
|
Mountain West |
| Air Force |
5 – 4
|
Mountain West |
| UNLV |
1 – 7
|
Mountain West |
| Utah (BCS – 5) |
8 – 0
|
Mountain West |
| San Diego State |
6 – 2
|
Mountain West |
| New Mexico |
0 – 8
|
Mountain West |
| Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents |
48 – 52
|
Computer Rankings for TCU
| Anderson & Hester |
6
|
| Richard Billingsley |
2
|
| Colley Matrix |
2
|
| Kenneth Massey |
3
|
| Jeff Sagarin |
5
|
| Peter Wolfe |
3
|
There is no rhyme nor reason for TCU’s computer rankings. Two computers ranking them number 2 and two ranking them number three when their opponents have a combined record of 48 – 52, with an 8 – 0 and a 6 – 2 that they haven’t played yet. Take away the records of the three teams yet to be played and the opponent’s record is 34 – 44.
|
Alabama’s Opponents
|
Record
|
Conference
|
| San Jose State |
1 – 8
|
Western Athletic |
| Penn State (#18 on gameday) |
5 – 3
|
Big 10 |
| Duke |
2 – 6
|
ACC |
| Arkansas (BCS 18) |
6 – 2
|
SEC – West |
| Florida (#7 on gameday) |
5 – 3
|
SEC – East |
| South Carolina (BCS 19) LOSS |
6 – 2
|
SEC – East |
| Mississippi |
3 – 5
|
SEC – West |
| Tennessee |
2 – 6
|
SEC – East |
| LSU (BCS – 10) |
7 – 1
|
SEC – West |
| Mississippi State (BCS – 20) |
7 – 2
|
SEC – West |
| Georgia State |
5 – 4
|
1AA |
| Auburn (BCS – 2) |
9 – 0
|
SEC – West |
| Combined Week 10 Record of Opponents |
58 – 42
|
Computer Rankings for Alabama
| Anderson & Hester |
9
|
| Richard Billingsley |
4
|
| Colley Matrix |
13
|
| Kenneth Massey |
16
|
| Jeff Sagarin |
17
|
| Peter Wolfe |
15
|
Alabama is poised to move up in the computer rankings because two of their final three opponents have good records, Mississippi State and Auburn. Of course, Alabama would have to win all of its remaining games, certainly a possibility.
I spend so much time on the Internet that I do my best to clean my computer once a week and never more than 10 days between cleanings. Here’s a special you might want to know about:
College Football Bowl Season 2009 – 2010
December 7, 2009
College football provides a little bit of something for everyone in the bowl games for the 2009 – 2010 season, and I mean everyone: especially those who want to cash in on audiences of various size. College football, like everything else in America is all about money.
Before Bowling for Dollars moved from alleys and ten pins to college football you were pretty much assured of seeing a good game between good teams. The Rose Bowl featured the PAC-10 winner versus the Big Ten winner. It was nicknamed "The Granddaddy of Them All" and has been a sellout every year since 1947. The Tournament of Roses originally featured ostrich races, bronco busting and, even, a race between a camel and an elephant. It wasn’t until its 12th year that a football game was added. That game lasted just a little more than two quarters when, with the score 49 – 0, Stanford gave up and walked off the field giving Michigan the victory. Years 13, 14 and 15 had chariot races instead of football, but the pigskin returned in year 16.
The other big games included the Cotton Bowl featuring the Southwest Conference Champion against someone-to-be-determined, the Sugar Bowl featuring the Southeast Conference Champion versus someone-to-be-named, the Orange Bowl that highlighted two teams to be named. The lesser bowls were the Gator Bowl and the Liberty Bowl.
But all that changed as money began to dominate college football. The list of all 2009 – 2010 Bowl Games is below. Matchups between Top 10 Tens are bold.
Bowl Games in 2009 -2010
|
Bowl
|
Date
|
Teams
|
| New Mexico | 12/19 | Fresno State 28 – Wyoming 35 |
| St. Petersburg | 12/19 | UCF 24 – Rutgers 45 |
| R+L Carriers New Orleans | 12/20 | Southern Miss 32 – Middle Tennessee 42 |
| MAACO Las Vegas | 12/22 | Oregon State (18) 20 – BYU (14) 44 |
| S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia | 12/23 | Utah (23) 37 – Cal 27 |
| Sheraton Hawaii | 12/24 | Nevada 10 – SMU 45 |
| Little Caesars | 12/26 | Marshall 21 – Ohio 17 |
| Meineke Car Care | 12/26 | Pitt (17) 19 – North Carolina 17 |
| Emerald | 12/26 | Boston College 13 – USC (24) 24 |
| Gaylord Hotels Music City | 12/27 | Kentucky 13 – Clemson 21 |
| AdvoCare V100 Independence | 12/28 | Texas A&M 20 – Georgia 44 |
| EagleBank | 12/29 | UCLA 30 – Temple 21 |
| Champs Sports | 12/29 | Miami (15) 14 – Wisconsin (25) 20 |
| Roady’s Humanitarian | 12/30 | Bowling Green 42 – Idaho 43 |
| Pacific Life Holiday | 12/30 | Arizona (20) 0 – Nebraska (22) 33 |
| Bell Helicopter Armed Forces | 12/31 | Houston 20 – Air Force 47 |
| Brut Sun | 12/31 | Oklahoma 31 -. Stanford (21) 27 |
| Texas | 12/31 | Navy 35 – Missouri 13 |
| Insight | 12/31 | Minnesota 13 – Iowa State 14 |
| Chick-fil-A | 12/31 | Virginia Tech (11) 37 – Tennessee 14 |
| Outback | 01/01 | Northwestern vs. Auburn |
| Capital One | 01/01 | Penn State (13) vs. LSU (12) |
| Konica Minolta Gator | 01/01 | West Virginia (16) vs. Florida State |
| Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi | 01/01 | Ohio State (8) vs. Oregon (7) |
| Allstate Sugar | 01/01 | Florida (5) vs. Cincinnati (3) |
| International | 01/02 | South Florida vs. Northern Illinois |
| Papajohns.com | 01/02 | South Carolina vs. UConn |
| AT&T Cotton | 01/02 | Oklahoma State (19) vs. Ole Miss |
| AutoZone Liberty | 01/02 | Arkansas vs. East Carolina |
| Valero Alamo | 01/02 | Michigan State vs. Texas Tech |
| Tostitos Fiesta | 01/04 | Boise State (6) vs. TCU (4) |
| FedEx Orange | 01/05 | Iowa (10) vs. Georgia Tech (9) |
| GMAC | 01/06 | Central Michigan vs. Troy |
| Citi BCS National Championship Game | 01/07 | Texas (2) vs. Alabama (1) |
So, there’s a whole lot of opportunity to Party Your, uh, Head Off. Grab a significant (or insignificant) other and have a good time as college football shines. Guys, maximize your chances to score with the winners by grabbing some of that clothing mentioned above in my own advertising. Don’t blame me, I’d like to make a little money off the bowl games, too. And you’ll like what I’m promoting a whole lot better, especially when victory is yours.








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